On Track - Disruptions and opportunities

Heated debate around employment over the course of the recent Federal election campaign has prompted a more general interest in labour market data and what it really means (https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics). Retrospectively, employment data provides a good overview of what has occurred and we can see patterns and trends that have emerged over time. Current labour market data is useful as a snapshot of where we are today.

All very informative, but for those of us thinking about our own career progression, what we really want to know is where are the jobs going to be in the future?

Since we don’t have a crystal ball, we turn to the information we do have. We make assumptions about trends we believe will continue, and build in some provision for changes we expect to see, like technological advances, demographic shifts and climate-related challenges.

In the first two decades of this century, the big labour market prediction was a shift from low to high skilled jobs, fuelled by advances in technology, accompanied by that old chestnut that ‘robots will steal our jobs’. The World Economic Forum’s annual listing of the top skills in demand for the next 20 years hasn’t changed much year on year.

But what happens when there is a major disruption? How reliable is the labour trend data then? The global pandemic, drought, fires, floods, international conflicts, political, social and economic disruption has seriously threatened the status quo. This has left many people questioning and perhaps shifting their thinking around work and their career.

Disruption to work patterns has raised big questions – about the nature and purpose of work, the work we choose to do and how we do it. We will unquestionably look back on this time as a turning point in history. The old normal is not coming back, especially when it comes to work.

The standard working week of Monday to Friday, 9-5, was already disappearing when the COVID pandemic completely threw out that work model. Remote working and variations to standard hours proved possible for many occupations, and several interesting things happened.

The pandemic highlighted the inconsistency between how we, as a society, might value highly but reward relatively poorly certain occupations such as nursing and teaching, aged care and childcare, warehousing and delivery. Workers in these occupations were recognised as essential to keeping our communities functioning.

Traditionally safe jobs in administration, hospitality, tourism, manufacturing, even the tertiary sector, disappeared as businesses closed or downsized.

But new careers also emerged. For some who suddenly found themselves jobless, it was the opportunity to develop an interest into a viable business, especially with the massive shift to working and ‘living’ online during the pandemic. Working from home while juggling childcare and home-schooling had some asking why unpaid work is not afforded a value in the national accounts.

As the economy restarts after the COVID shutdowns, our tight labour market, at least in the short-term, has changed the dynamic between employers and employees, resulting in a so-called ‘war for talent’. If you have been thinking of moving on, it’s a great time to polish your profile/resume and think about how you can give yourself a professional edge.

We don’t yet know what shape the ‘new normal’ will take. But I think there are some observations that can be made with a degree of confidence.

• Our career planning will incorporate a greater degree of uncertainty, and we will need to become more comfortable with not knowing;
• The demand for skilled staff across a wide range of occupations is likely to remain strong;
• Working from home is here to stay and perfectly feasible for a lot of people;
• Making career choices will include thinking about both the work we want to do (the occupation), as well as how we want to do it (the conditions).

The disruptions we’ve experienced over the past few years have exposed many of the assumptions underpinning social and economic conventions in the workplace. While salary is a major driver in career decisions (https://www.seek.com.au/loa), work-life balance is a close second. The scope of the life-work balance conversation has broadened considerably since 2019. The assumption that a person’s occupation determines status and value is a matter for discussion, as is the degree of reciprocity between employee and organisation. The onus is now on businesses and governments to improve the pay and conditions of the essential ‘caring’ professions to attract and retain staff.

Over the next few months, political discussions will undoubtedly continue over such matters as pay rates and support for women re-entering the workforce, as well as broader social policies around childcare.

The conversations we are now having about the value and purpose of work, across all industries and pay scales, will inform the design of our ‘new normal’. Interesting times ahead.

*Airlie Bell is an Adjunct Senior Lecturer with UNE.