We’re asked to swallow all kinds of stories during a federal election campaign. As voting day looms, we asked Aaron Driver* - UNE expert in marketing, business storytelling and persuasion, and former journalist and political press secretary - for his take on the stories we’ve been told.
“Morrison’s key pitch is that only he can be trusted on the economy and national security,” Aaron says. “Albanese has adopted a small-target strategy and tried to keep everyone focused on Morrison and his record.
"It’s exactly what Joe Biden did in his campaign against Donald Trump – trying to stay out of the way and make the election a referendum on Morrison, in the same way Biden made it a referendum on Trump. Morrison has been desperate for something to run against Albanese. Despite the recent minimum wage skirmish, and the Coalition’s last-ditch attempt to create a ‘superannuation culture war’ over first home buyer deposits, it’s been a pretty one-dimensional campaign.”
We’re starting to see a ramping up of the attack advertisements now. Why is that?
"Negative ads work - that’s why they use them - and we’ll see plenty more this week. Humans are hard-wired to detect problems in the environment, including in other people; that’s how we evolved. It’s part of why we like to read and watch stories filled with conflict and drama.
"With Albanese doggedly remaining a small target, he’s got to go negative, and with Morrison having no discernible next-term agenda, he’s got to go negative. The attack ads are inevitable."
In terms of storytelling, how do you get cut-through in the last week of an election campaign?
"If you are trying to get cut-through at this point, you’ve left it too late. You have to build the story over time, starting months before, or years, as in the case of Labor’s pitch against Morrison.
"All other things being equal, the person who tells the best story wins.
All other things being equal, the person who tells the best story wins.
"In this election right now, the question is: is the story for Scott Morrison stronger than the story against Scott Morrison? Because there’s no powerful story for Albanese.
"The story for Morrison is that you can trust him on the economy and national security, and that voting for Labor is unsafe. The story against Morrison is that he goes missing in times of serious need: during the bushfires, on climate change, during the floods, on the COVID vaccine roll-out and quarantine, on the treatment of women, and on corruption.
"Unfortunately for Morrison, he’s dropped the ball on the Solomon Islands and national security. And we’ve now got 5% inflation, rising interest rates and cost-of-living pressures. This all undermines Morrison’s overarching narrative.
"What’s Albo’s story? Morrison goes missing in the big moments. The whole ‘It’s not my job’, ‘I don’t hold a hose, mate’ phenomenon. It’s been a clear strategy, from at least a year ago, to make this a referendum on Morrison."
Having worked on election campaigns, what else matters?
"Execution is really important: there’s the market research, ground game strategy and execution, working the media effectively, developing and releasing gaff-free policy, and so on. But assuming that both parties are roughly equal on execution, it comes down to the best story, because the dominant narrative is what lodges itself in the minds of swing voters as they approach election day."
Is it too late to persuade voters?
"No, because we still have a significant number of undecided voters, but it’s too late to put a new dominant story forward for their consideration; you just won’t get cut-through.
"Albo is just prosecuting his case that Morrison goes missing, and Morrison is prosecuting his case that Labor can’t be trusted. When it comes to choosing between Labor and the Coalition, these are the dominant stories on the menu."
What of the narrative of the teal Independents?
"They’ve developed a very strong narrative – small government, free enterprise and freedom of speech – which is essentially small ‘l’ Liberal, but above all they are for climate action. They have staked out the middle ground and have done a beautiful job of occupying the political centre in well-educated, middle-to-upper-class city electorates.
"They are nailing it, plus they’re all women – you’ve got this coalition of like-minded, reasonably conservative but pro-climate, powerful, educated women, which is Morrison’s worst nightmare. They have really captured the zeitgeist, at least in certain pockets of the country."
They have really captured the zeitgeist, at least in certain pockets of the country.
Are you prepared to make a prediction on the election result?
"No, because polls have been so consistently wrong in the past. It’s so hard for pollsters to reach people these days because they can’t get them on mobiles or reach certain demographic groups, so they are forced to rebalance their surveys based on very small samples.
"That said, if my theory holds true – that the best story wins – it would be Labor.
"But, shockingly, I’ve been wrong before.
"With the teal Independents running at the Coalition’s moderate flank and Clive Palmer running at the conservative flank, who knows what’s going to happen. There are so many variables in play."
* Aaron Driver, Lecturer with the UNE School of Business, worked as a press secretary and speech writer for a State MP in the lead-up to the 1995 NSW election, and more recently as a political and finance journalist, and marketing strategist.
