Past, Present and Futures Landscapes: Understanding Alternative Futures for Climate Change Adaptation of Coastal Settlements and Communities
The only sure thing is change. Current climate change vulnerability and adaptation studies tend to examine future climate change induced disturbance and impacts on present day landscape patterns of settlements, land uses and ecosystems. Such approaches will be inaccurate and compound uncertainty. History demonstrates that future landscape patterns will be very different from today. Though shaped by past elements, the effects of climate change in the future will be impacting on quite different landscapes and communities.
This project builds on methods of mapping past and current land use trends, to predict the future trajectory of settlement patterns. The spatial patterns of likely future settlements and other landscape elements will be analysed to quantify areas of land use affected by climate change impacts (e.g., SLR+flood, storm surge). Alternative landscape futures scenarios will be designed and analysed to provide a quantifiable understanding of adaptation towards more resilient landscape futures to avoid or minimise future climate event impacts. Development and demonstration will occur through iterative application on a coastal NSW Northern Rivers case study.
Final ReportDownload >
Completed in 2012
Contact: Phil Morley