Researchers work to soften 'sea-change' impact on coasts

June 21, 2007

An international research team has emphasised the urgent need for governments and developers to consider the impact on the environment of trends such as global warming, massive "sea-change" population migrations, and general land-use shifts.

The team is from the Institute for Rural Futures (IRF) at the University of New England, Armidale, and the Desert Research Institute in Nevada, USA. With funding from Land and Water Australia, the researchers have analysed 30 years of landscape change from satellite imagery, and socio-economic change from census data, and are examining alternatives for regional development. Their research is being field-tested in the Northern Rivers region of NSW.

The Director of IRF, Professor David Brunckhorst, and two researchers from Nevada – Dr Dave Mouat and Dr Scott Bassett – presented results from studies in the Northern Rivers region (and in the USA) at a recent international resource-management conference in Bendigo, Victoria. They also presented a methodology for understanding histories of land use change and migration, and scenarios for future landscapes and better planning.

They said that all levels of government, as well as developers and residents, should be concerned by the increasing demands on land and water resources that trends such as the "sea-change" phenomenon have caused. "We are increasing rather than decreasing the risk of disastrous consequences," Professor Brunckhorst said. "Half of Australia’s population lives within seven kilometres of the coast. More than six million people live within two kilometres of high water. In the last 10 years, the 'sea-change' phenomenon has resulted in a population growth of more than 50 per cent in many coastal areas."

"The NSW Government has forecast that an estimated 150,000 new residents will make their home on the coast between Forster and the Queensland border in the next 25 years," he added. "However, current trends suggest there could be four-to-five times this population increase."

The researchers have devised a technique through which urban and regional planners could take greater account of local ecological factors and gauge the effects of alternative planning scenarios. "Haphazard development, particularly on the coast, has already resulted in the loss of – or reduction in – good agricultural land, and water quality and supply," Professor Brunckhorst said. "We have mapped a long-running pattern of urban sprawl and loss of natural resources. There has been, however, little planning or policy response, or use of landscape ecology design principles to plan sustainable futures.

"New Orleans should have been a wake-up call for planners at all levels of government. The recent storm surges around Newcastle and flooding in the Hunter Valley are closer to home. We were very fortunate the levy banks were not breached this time."

The Web site for the project is at:
http://www.ruralfutures.une.edu.au/projects/3.php?nav=Landscape%20Mosaics&page=49

Posted by Jim Scanlan at June 21, 2007 05:09 PM